Why the Iran report hurts Iran
Writing by abuhatem on Wednesday, 5 of December , 2007 at 1:35 am
If you all haven’t noticed in the mass media frenzy which has ocurred in the past few days - the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has reported that Iran stopped their nuclear program in 2003; amid U.S. and international pressure (well, not really, as Khatami was the President then, and the whole Iran nuclear ‘aggressive diplomacy,’ period only began in 2005 after Ahmedinijad was elected the President!).
Most people state that this is a victory for Iran, however this is not the case. It would actually be a victory for Iran if the U.S. believed they were seeking nuclear weapons. Why? Coming back to a Realist paradigm of international relations - which I have posted about before concerning Iran - the leverage of a state lessens when its percieved power decreases.
How so?
When Iran was percieved as almost a nuclear power it was given significant leverage. Firstly, it caused the Bush and Sarkozy administrations to put stronger pressure on Iran, even though it was cooperating, and gave Iran further impetus to seek a nuclear weapon. The logical message it sent was - although you are cooperating, we will treat you the same. The war in Iraq reinforced the belief in Iran that if it did not seek nuclear weapons as soon as possible it was headed for war anyways. It only further gave Iran reasons to get nuclear weapons. The U.S. would also face immense drawbacks in invading Iran, such as destabilizing Iraq, an immense backlash in the Muslim world, and spending immense amounts of money in another quagmire war - which made Iran believe that if it got nuclear weapons it would be more safe from attack. The NIE report, if the U.S. uses it to engage Iran postively, will show Iran the benefits of cooperation and thus keep them from being a nuclear power, thus hurting them.
Secondly, the NIE report destroyed the image of Iran as an emerging moderate power in the region. Syria relies upon Iran for its defense, as well as Hezbollah. Venezuela, and even in some expert speculation - Russia (see my blog post a few days ago), were beginning to increase their ties with Iran. Iran also set off a security dillema crisis for the Gulf states and Israel. Iran’s image as a nuclear power increased its fear factor, and thus encouraged the United States to cooperate and attempt to engage and deal with enemies such as Syria to pull them away from Iran. Iran’s emerging power also emboldened Hezbollah, increased fear in Israel - who just lost a 2006 war due to Iranian influence, and increased prospects of some sort of peace deal with the Palestinians, especially with Syria, due to the negative effects of Iranian foreign policy.
The NIE report destroyed this “fear factor,” as well and makes it clear that Iran is not the emerging nuclear power that people make it out to be. It decreases fear in the region and thus almost certainly drives down oil prices which will hurt the Iranian economy which would be almost stagnant if it wasn’t for the high price of oil.
In the end, this report which seems as if it saves Iran from the threat of war, actually hurts Iran militarily, economically, and strategically, and re-balances the Middle East in favor of the Western bloc of the United States and Israel, and away from the Syrian-Iranian factor.
It is very interesting how one report in one day could change an entire region in such immense capacity.
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Comment by 
Sulayman
Made Thursday, 6 of December , 2007 at 3:00 am
That’s fascinating. But can’t it be both good AND bad?
Good because sanctions may be much harder for Bush to get, good because maybe the American politicians can turn down some of the unhelpful rhetoric and thus decrease the risk of escalating after the US election.
I never considered the downsides, but yes, it can also be bad. I don’t think it will be THAT bad though. China still wants to buy Iranian oil, and Russia is still somewhat cordial towards Iran, right? I think you’re right that Israel will see less reason to work for peace if Iran is less of a threat, however.
Sheesh, this foreign policy stuff is worse than chess.
