Who’s winning?
Writing by abuhatem on Thursday, 28 of August , 2008 at 10:42 pm
For those unfamiliar in the ways of American elections there are three time-tested ways to know who is currently winning:
- Prediction markets in swing states: specifically Rasmussen and Intrade which are the most reliable. Prediction markets are more reliable than polls according to the vast majority of analysts.
- The Rasmussen balance of power barometer which combines both prediction markets and the latest polls - check out each swing state.
- Fivethirtyeight.com - which is in conjunction with Rasmussen - check out each swing state.
- RealClearPolitics does a fairly accurate average of polls in swing states, check those out too.
- Use Allan Abramowitz’s election barometer based on Allan Lichman’s Keys to the White House. This formula only failed at one election which was 1968. It computes who is most likely to win the election by looking at the GDP growth rate, the president’s approval rating, and the amount of years one party has been in power. EB = NAR + (5*GDP) - 25.
What NOT to look at: national polls, they just don’t matter what so ever. If you monitor the Intrade prediction markets you find that Obama’s odds are extremely high. August, despite McCain’s strong jabs, has been his best month so far - with a high of 62.5% and a low of 52.5% (prediction markets and not polls). 
If we compare this to McCain’s August market we find McCain generally rising, which is good as August has been his best month yet of campaigning, yet McCain’s low is a 35% and his high is a 40%. Prediction markets are volatile however, so any of this could change soon: 
Thus, as of today, we have Obama winning with a 59.1 - 41.2 difference at the current moment on the prediction markets.If we look at the election barometer - EB = NAR + (5*GDP) - 25, then we have a electoral barometer reading of EB = -37 + (5*3.3) -25 or EB = -45.5 or slightly better odds for the Democrats than every year since 1984 and almost approaching the electoral barometer reading of 1980 or -66 which actually was the electoral barometer rating in the early summer. If GDP growth dips any in the next two months, Obama’s chances will be higher. Rassmussen’s Balance of Power based in prediction markets and polls says Obama is leading 193-183 in the electoral college.Basically, Obama is winning at the moment but it is still close. Colorado is going to be a very important state, and so is Nevada, because as I have written previously, Obama can lose the entire heartland (except Pennsylvania and Michigan where he is already very likely to win) yet win Nevada and Colorado and still win if we use the 2004 Kerry-Bush map.Here is the current statistics on Nevada and Colorado:Nevada:Tossup. McCain leads 45-42 in latest Rasmussen poll, while poll average (Fivethirtyeight.com) is 44-44. Yet on the prediction markets McCain leads 61-45.Colorado:Toss-up but leans Democratic, latest Rasmussen poll 47-45 for McCain, average of recent polls is 44-46 for McCain, while predictions markets go 59.9-43 for Obama.Its a tight race, we should check next month to see where Obama and McCain’s numbers go after both conventions and VPs are named. The race also gets a lot more heated up after Labor Day, thus late September should tell us where things are going more clearly.
Category: American Politics
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