The New Arab Cold War
Writing by abuhatem on Tuesday, 13 of May , 2008 at 9:38 am
A piece I wrote for YaLibnan.com:
yalibnan.com/site/archives/2008/05/the_new_arab_co.php
The outbreak of violence in the streets of Beirut in Lebanon are just another chapter in the modern history of the most backwards civilization in the contemporary world.
The Arab world, which falls severely below Africa on all benchmarks, is ailing. Yet probably the most significant development of this “new Middle East” is a new Arab Cold War.
Henry Kissinger in his ‘Does America Need a Foreign Policy?’ book published shortly before the terrorist attacks of September 11th, described the Middle East as an international system that was based in feudalism and ethnic and religious conflict which sharply contrasted with the notion of the modern sovereign state consequent to the 1648 European peace of Westphalia.
This may have been the case back then, but undoubtedly the invasion of Iraq has created in the Middle East a new balance-of-power politics based in political realism. The current Middle East is a manifestation of the realpolitik of Machiavelli and Metternich.
Following the war in Iraq, the regional balance of power radically changed. Without Iraq to check it, Iran increased its influence in the country’s vacuum, backing pro-Iranian Shiite factions such as the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army.
Iran’s alliance with Syria, and its strong influence in Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza, have created what many term a “Shiite crescent” in the Middle East. Persian Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are growing increasingly insecure.
The Iranian influence in the Arab world was perhaps felt most strongly during the 2006 summer war between Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah’s newfound popularity and declarations of victory reverberated through the Arab street, to the chagrin of Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia who’s Mufti Hamid Ali al-Jabreen released a fatwa or Muslim edict claiming it was Islamically forbidden to pray for the victory of the Shiite Hezbollah. Since the 2006 conflict, a security crisis has escalated in Arab nations fearing Iranian influence - just this fall Saudi Arabia had signed a monumental arms deal with the United States.
Hezbollah’s disobedience to Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Sanoira’s alleged calls to withdraw from its seizure of Western Beirut for exchange of nullifying the government decision to destroy the Shiite militia’s illegal telecommunications network are simply another example of Iranian victory. The Washington Times proclaimed it “Hezbollah’s ‘redrawing’ of the Middle East map.” As with al-Sadr’s threats for war and uprising in Iraq’s Basra, the threat of violence has caused the government to cave in without any true battles. Sun Tzu, the great Chinese strategist once wrote that the best victory was defeating one’s opponent without battle. The U.S. backed Lebanese government was forced to claim yesterday that “Lebanon’s true enemy Israel,” while the U.S. backed Iraqi government has been discussing “close ties” to American adversary - Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmedinijad. The struggle for influence in the Arab world is self evident.
With help from Chinese investment, Russian arms deals, Venezuelan solidarity, and its traditional ally Syria, Iran has attempted to protect and expand its sphere of influence in the Middle East. The U.S. and France have supported Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, and Egypt which have largely allied themselves to the pro-American Lebanese government faction called the March 14th coalition.
Alliances are formed to expand spheres of interest and attempt at securing vital national interests. The new blocs of Middle Eastern powers illustrate the expansiveness of the current problem. Instead of looking at symptoms, such as Hezbollah’s take over as West Beirut, one must look at the full disease. The root of this new instability and power politics has been the brash and preemptive foreign policies of the Bush administration. Whether in invading Iraq, supporting the far right policies of former Israeli premier Ariel Sharon, giving the green light to current Israeli premier Ehud Olmert’s 2006 bombardment of Lebanon, or go-it-alone unilateralism, it is clear that American policies in the Middle East have provoked the fear and insecurity which have led to the current atmosphere of Arab power politics. Destabilizing the region have led it to be mired by civil strife.
One can only hope that the foreign policies of the next American administration take a more cooperative turn. A destabilized Middle East is a destabilized world. The consequences of the continuation of realpolitik are a Saudi-Iranian arms race, the inducements of nuclear weapons by insecure Arab states, civil strife in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and Iraq, and a long period of stasis in resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Category: Lebanese Politics
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