On the coming GOP meltdown
Writing by abuhatem on Monday, 2 of June , 2008 at 2:18 am
The great and reputable Atlas of U.S. Politics gives the following map comprised of the aggregates of presidential polls in all fifty states for an Obama-McCain match up in the general elections (blue for republicans, red for democrats, don’t ask me why!):
This makes the current total 228 for Obama, 222 for McCain, and 88 tossup. Now although Michigan is leaning republican at the current moment in the atlas’ analysis, this is far from agreed upon. Michigan has not gone republican since the 1988 Bush landslide against Dukakis, and doesn’t look like its going republican any time soon - at least during this especially anti-republican political climate.
With Nevada, North Dakota, Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, South Carolina, and New Hampshire as complete tossup swing states and only Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, Alaska, Michigan and Florida as republican compared to Oregon, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Massachusetts as democrat leaning, the chances of an Obama victory are ripe.
Of the tossups 8 went republican last time and only 2 went democrat - New Hampshire and Wisconsin. All of the five republican leaning states went republican last time. Of the five democrat leaning states, one was in the GOP column in 2004 (Iowa).
The chances of an Obama victory are much statistically higher than a McCain victory. Using this set up of the tossup states (which are based on the latest 3 polls in each state, including the highly accurate Rasmussen polls) and including the republican-leaning as republican and the democratic-leaning as democrat with the exception of Michigan which only slightly (2-5%) leans McCain under current polling then 270towin’s election possibilities calculator gives 160 possible Obama wins to 125 for McCain. If we give Michigan to McCain then the democrats still have 90 combinations to victory compared to 86 possibilities for the republicans, which is approximately neck-in-neck with a slight Obama edge in possibilities.
If we look at other possible set-up maps such as the Bush-Kerry map of 2004 including victories of <5% as “swing states” then we have a closer race, but this is not 2004 and the country’s mood has changed since the 2006 congressional elections. Under such criteria we have the following map:
In this scenario Obama, which is a very important benchmark as it is that of the last election and the maps have not changed much, then Obama must win either Ohio which is very possible, or even with an Ohio loss Obama can win the White House with a very unconventional route with the must win states of PA,MI,MN,WI,CO. PA, MI, MN, and WI are generally strongly democratic states, although Wisconsin was the closest of these states only voting for Kerry with 11,384 votes or .38%. Then Obama must win 3 of the following 4 states: Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Iowa.
Thus, being very conservative and using the current maps for tossup swing states along with the 2004 maps we can make one conclusion: all red and blue states being equal, for an Obama victory in the fall Obama must either win Ohio and one other state OR Colorado and 3 of the following states: Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Iowa.
This is very possible being that Colorado, and Iowa are polling very strongly for Obama while New Hampshire, Nevada, and Iowa are leaning democratic. Obama also is competitive in Ohio. Since in the past few contests these states have been won by less than 5%, it is very possible that Obama wins these states, and thus there are many very strong paths for Obama to win this nomination.
This analysis does not even include other very probable Obama upsets.
UPDATE (06/02/08 8:07 PM): Rasmussen Reports today released their current general election calculations under their “balance-of-power calculator” which are as following:
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator will be updated daily until Election Day. More information below table.
Balance of Power Calculator - Electoral College
Safe Republican 168
Likely Republican 21
Leans Republican 51
Tossup 38
Leans Democrat 60
Likely Democrat 43
Safe Democrat 157
Rasmussen Reports explains:
Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Likely Democratic: Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), and Washington (11).
Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).
Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).
Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).
Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).
Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
This gives us the following map:
Under this current scenario, McCain must win both Colorado and Ohio which is extremely difficult and unlikely. Although McCain may possibly barely win Ohio, Colorado will be extremely hard. Another Florida? Maybe. In this election Colorado is a must-win essential swing state. It may not be an exaggeration to say this time that “he who wins Colorado, wins the nation.”
Category: American Politics
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