Obama’s Chances in the Fall
Writing by abuhatem on Friday, 23 of May , 2008 at 9:54 pm
With an overwhelming sweep for democrats in the Congress planned, a recession, and a failed war, it looks easier than ever for the democrats to take the White House.
In fact here are the statistics of the correlations between recessions and party control of the White House:
- 2001 recession - no presidential elections followed, and it was after 9/11 and the Clinton presidency.
- 1991 recession - during George H.W. Bush’s term, he lost the White House (but Ross Perot was also a large part of that equation).
- 1987 recession - Reagan held the White House, and George H.W. Bush was elected without problem due to the economic recovery of 1988.
- 1981 recession - Carter’s “malaise” lost the White House to usher in the Reagan era.
Thus it is not very likely that a president keep the White House during a recession year if there is no economic recovery. Another likely indicator of an Obama victory - republican fatigue.
If you look at the electoral map at 270towin you find that if the electoral map remained the same as the 2000 election between Bush and Gore (and many of these states did not really change much in Bush’s reelection), there will be a 269-269 tie. New Hampshire is going to be an important state, if the democrats hold it, it might just tip them over the top. And if there was a tie and it went to the House of Representatives, then we would have an Obama victory.
It is also likely that some of the economically hurt states such as Ohio, or maybe even Virginia, will swing Obama but very doubtful. There is also West Virginia who did not even vote for Reagan (we have no Reagan democrats) but went red for Bush twice (we’re Bush democrats). However, I still give it to McCain. But overall Obama has very good chances, even though his draconian environmental policies and leftist economics will hurt us in the long term.
The most likely swing states for the next election:
- Colorado
- New Mexico
- New Hampshire
- Iowa
Second tier of swing states:
- Nevada
- West Virginia
Third tier of swing states:
- Florida
- Virginia
- West Virginia
Category: American Politics
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Made Monday, 16 of June , 2008 at 5:46 am
[…] has been my argument numerous times on this blog (here, here, here, and […]
