Abu Hatem أبو حاتم

More on the Electoral Map

Writing by abuhatem on Friday, 30 of May , 2008 at 12:12 pm

The Economist has a semi-decent article today concerning the fall elections and the electoral map. The best part of the economists article is probably the picture of the electoral map itself:

Note, as I have blogged before here, and here, Obama has the edge in this election. In fact, even the right-wing Fox News’ owner Rupert Murdoch seems to have read the writing on the wall.

Many of the republican in 2004 swing states are currently leaning for Obama. Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa are all leaning or strongly leaning Obama according to the Rasmussen polls. The only shots McCain has at democratic states are New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, and those are pretty weak. Obama can possibly take North Carolina or Virginia, as the Economist piece says.

I have blogged about the importance of these small states: Colarado, New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire are important. All four are swing states, and if Obama won Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa then he would tie in the electoral college and thus win (because of the almost certainty of a democratic house of representatives). The Economist illustrates this point:

Geography, as so often in history, is key. The electoral map did not change much between the last two presidential elections. Only three states, all small, switched sides between 2000 and 2004: Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

And if Obama wins Ohio, where McCain is only leading by 1-point by the most recent Rasmussen poll, then he could lose all of those states save one and still win. And I am not even counting so many possible Obama pick ups. I agree with Murdoch, he will win by a landslide.

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Category: American Politics

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