Biden a dumb choice
Writing by abuhatem on Saturday, 23 of August , 2008 at 3:04 pm
Obama’s choice of Biden as his running mate is probably based upon his desire to strengthen perceived weaknesses on the foreign policy and experience fronts. Nevertheless, Biden and his foot-in-mouth syndrome is a horrible choice. Not only does Biden have an extensive history of gaffes - he is little known in the U.S. despite his over 30-year record in the Senate.
Obama has two major hurdles that he must overcome to win this election, and Biden has not helped on either of them:
- Winning over the Reagan democrats in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and Virginia.
- Winning back Hillary supporters who still, en masse, have not come on board for Obama.
Obama looks as if he is going to most likely win in Pennsylvania and Michigan. He is almost certainly going to lose Indiana, and West Virginia while Virginia and Ohio are toss-ups. Biden does not help Obama in either Virginia or Ohio. An unknown Irish Catholic northerner, like John Kerry, does not stand a chance in the heartland.
Kerry lost Virginia by 8 points and Ohio by 2 points. His victories in Michigan and Pennsylvania were slim - by 4 and 2 points respectively. Missouri was lost by 7 points. And Indiana was a huge loss for Kerry by 20 points.
Evan Bayh would have helped Obama keep Indiana close, thus diverting some of McCain’s resources, and would have helped in Ohio. Hillary Clinton would have re-united the party and given him those 18 million votes. Bill Richardson would have given him a clear strategy through the midwest and with hispanic voters giving him a Nevada-Colorado-New Mexico road to victory. Chuck Hagel would have put many republicans on board and helped Obama in the heartland.
By chosing Biden, Obama has ensured that he has to work doubly hard to encourage Reagan democrats in the heartland to vote for him. Obama cannot rely upon a percieved upset in Virginia. If Obama does in fact lose Ohio, which is very probable being that he lost to Hillary Clinton there by about 9 points and is currently losing in the latest Rasmussen polls by 5, then he will be in deep trouble.
Of course there is a way for Obama to win without Ohio, and with his massive fundraising appeal and the great dissatisfaction with Bush it seems almost self-evident that Obama is going to win the election (see Prof. Allan Lichtman’s formula for presidential elections for more information). Obama could win instead through a midwest strategy of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, along with Iowa and New Hampshire. All of the aforementioned states have been swing states for the past several elections (unlike Virginia and other far reach Obama targets such as Georgia).
If Obama does lose Ohio, and the map stays the way it is, then Colorado would become a must win for Obama. The following four combinations give Obama victory without the Reagan democrats in such a scenario (from 270towin.com):
- CO + IA + NM + NV
- CO + IA + NV + NH
- CO + IA + NM + NH
- CO + NM + NV + NH
If we take out Nevada which leans McCain then Obama would only have route (3) to win the presidency. And if McCain picks Romney as his running mate this entire strategy will be destroyed with Romney’s strong mormon support in Nevada, Colorado, and even New Mexico to a lesser extent. If McCain wants to win he should pick Romney, and Obama should have picked someone who would have helped with the Reagan democrats (Bayh, Clinton, Webb, etc.) or someone who could have helped with the midwest (Richardson), but not a Joe Biden who is a horrible pick.
This may be the day that Obama blew his overwhelming odds and lost the election.
Category: American Politics
- Add this post to
- Del.icio.us -
- Meneame -
- Digg
No comments yet.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
