The results in the Lebanon elections were mildly surprising considering that most polls showed the March 8th coalition with a slim 1 or 2 vote parliamentary majority, while what happened was that March 14th retained the government.
However, it is best not to buy into American media narratives of the polls, even the NYTimes, which seem to be oversimplifying the results or even (as in the case of some liberal bloggers) concluding that Obama’s Cairo speech swung the balance. Moreover, the race was dominated by local politics and family ties in many ways, and was not as simple as the “Hezbollah versus the West” narrative that played out in Western newspapers. A little analysis shows otherwise.
Hezbollah ran 11 seats in this parliament, and won all 11, compared to the 14 they ran in 2005, due to redistricting reasons. Amal, the other main Shiite party a Hezbollah ally which is secular and non-Islamist, ran 15 last parliament, and this parliament won again more seats than Hezbollah.
The battle was not between Hezbollah’s party per se, and the pro-Western parties, but specifically the Lebanese elections were fought amongst the Christians between Hezbollah ally Christian General Michele Aoun (and lesserly known his Christian companion Sulieman Farenjieh’s Marada Movement) and the Phalange and Lebanese Forces parties. And they were specifically fought over two swing districts – Metn and Zahle mostly – which were basically deciders of the fate of Lebanon.
Michele Aoun did not campaign on a pro-Hezbollah, pro-Iran platform, and his supporters and voters mostly voted for him for reform and economic reasons. He pledged to “clean up politics” and named his coalition the “reform and change bloc.” However, it is undeniably true that whichever way Metn and Zahle swung would hold the cards.
The parliamentary majority of the March 14th coalition based on the 2005 elections was 72/56, and prior to the elections due to byelections, defections, and assasinations was 68/56 (with 4 independents). After last night’s elections, March 14th rules with a majority of 71/57, which actually is a net loss of one seat to the pro-Western coalition, and a pick up of 1 seat by Hezbollah’s ally with independents taking the rest.
The three districts where March 8th hoped to make pick ups, Zahle, Metn, and Beirut 1 were the nail in the coffin of their electoral hopes. Zahle and Metn are two of the most Christian districts in Lebanon, Zahle is a Roman Catholic stronghold while Metn is a diverse mix of Maronites, Orthodox, and a large and sizable population of Armenians. At 4:30 PM EST, the famous Lebanese political reporter and anchor Marcel announced that Zahle was swept 7-0 for March 14th with not a single upset for General Aoun’s party. When this was announced, LBC and the remainder of Lebanese networks declared a victory for March 14th (3 and a half hours before the BBC, CNN International, Al-Jazeera, or the NYTimes) which was obvious.
In the Metn district however, Aoun carried 5/7 seats with March 14th only carrying 2. This still meant a victory for March 14th due to the Zahle sweep, yet it was a far cry from the hopes of the ruling majority. In fact, one of the ruling majority’s winning MPs Michele Murr was in fact an incumbent who used to be a member of the March 8th bloc and defected. So March 14th did very badly in the Metn.
Why was this so? There are many reasons. It is partly due to the fact that the Armenian Tashnaq party could not secure enough government power in the case of a coalition with March 14th, while Aoun promised them cabinet posts, and hence their strong minority tipped the balance towards him. But this is only part of the story. Any true analysis of these elections has to look into voter behavior in the Metn and Zahle and understand why this overwhelmingly Christian district gave 5 of its seats to the pro-Hezbollah alliance. Exit polls given by the Lebanese network LBC said that 38% of Metn voters voted based on sect, 38% voted based on politics, and 91% voted for an entire list.
This shows a very highly politicized, sectarian Metn which strongly backed Aoun’s party whole heartedly, there weren’t many split ballots. Moreover, 67.89% of Metn voters had already selected their candidate over a month ago. Why Metn is such a huge Aoun stronghold, even after he signed an alliance with Hezbollah, remains to be seen. Aoun’s Hezbollah-allied party retained every single seat it was defending and picked up a seat in Metn, which is not good news for political stability and shows the country is still highly divided.
But it was overwhelmingly Catholic Zahle’s 7-0 sweep for March 14th that made the day. That coupled with a 7-0 sweep in Beirut 1 district, showed that Aoun could make no inroads amongst these voters like he thought he would. Why did Zahle and Beirut 1 remain behind March 14th? That is the big question of the Lebanese elections. I think it is partly local and family politics, but perhaps it was also a fear of Iranian and Syrian influence in the country.
In the coming days when more data comes out of Zahle and Beirut 1 we will be able to see why Aoun could not swing these seats into his bloc.
Yet, for all the talk of a “pro-Western upset” in Lebanon, it is clear that the Hezbollah-backed opposition actually gained a seat, and the parliament is as divided as it always was. Forming a government is going to be an extremely difficult matter, and the highly fractured coalitions on both sides may actually be crumbling and forming into new electoral alignments as is the norm in Lebanon.
Walid Jumblatt, a member of the March 14th alliance, has indicated that he wants to include Hezbollah in the cabinet, and others in the bloc such as majority leader Saad Hariri have also seemed to be open to this. Hezbollah has accepted the election results but seem to want some power in the next government, and so it is mainly the status quo for Lebanon and the same instability we’ve been seeing in the next 4 years. Nothing more.
Anyways, those are earliest thoughts.
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